Assorted Christmastime Happenings

What a great weekend!

We started out in Milwaukee. A great breakfast with Annie & John, Meghan & Jason, and Kara & Lieland! Too bad that Pete had to work, but it was great to get to meet Lieland (Pete and Kara's baby). Later that night we had Christmas with the Fritschs. Thomas and Matt came over as well as grandpa to join her parents and the two of us. Here's Cocoa getting in on the present opening action, and Barb and I making a snowman.


Saturday it was back to Madison to have Christmas at the Halbergs. Mike and Sheila were in town and Claire was in full effect. Very excited for presents to be opened! Our gift was a hit. I don't think you can go wrong buying a girl of any age 5 pairs of princess shoes and a tiara!



Sunday we woke up late (a little Christmas gift to ourselves) before heading up to Green Bay for the Packers vs. Bears game. It was a great time and the Pack made it exciting at the end - unfortunately, it just wasn't your day (or year for that matter). Completely randomly, we ran into cousin Tim and second cousin Zak! Unbelievable in a stadium that size! There's more on that here.



Monday we met up with The Roos (minus Ericka) for lunch in Johnson's Creek. The highlight, of course, being the introduction of the newly engaged Emily and Rob (congrats kids). Monnie and I spent the rest of the day with Carissa and Niki - we watched some corny movies and had a great dinner at Ginza Tokyo. There's more about it here and a little here too.
Here are our leftovers (dressed more for Halloween than Christmas).


That's one great weekend and a couple more great ones coming right up. This weekend we're starting out with dinner at John and Leslie's on Friday night. I'm really looking forward to stopping in to see grandpa beforehand. After that we're headed up North for our 3rd annual New Years in Bessemer, MI (Powderhorn Mt), then a weekend or two after that: up to Mt. Bohemia for a weekend of skiing. What a great time of year!

Let's Make A Deal

Last night Monnie and I were watching Deal or No Deal. I had planned on blogging to you guys about how the game works - it's a combination of math and luck (who wouldn't like that?) and I recommend checking it out, but when I went to look up a bit more info on the game, I came across a problem that's always been one of my favorites - how big of a math nerd are you when you can call a problem "one of your favorites"?

It's commonly referred to as "The Monty Hall Paradox". If you ever watched "Let's Make a Deal" you're familiar with corny gameshows... another thing you're familiar with though is a game played on the show. You get called up to the front to play and are presented with three doors. Behind one of the three doors is a fabulous prize. Opening either of the other two doors reveals a goat. I'm not sure if you actually get to keep the goat - but the idea is that you lose.

Anyway, you select one of the three doors. Instead of opening your selected door, the host opens one of the other doors - behind which is always a goat. He then asks you: Would you like to stick with your original door? Or would you like to switch to the other door that we haven't shown?

The question is:
Do the odds say that you should stick with your original door?
Do they say that you should switch?
Or do the odds say that it's all on you and there's no difference?

The answer that most people come to initially is: it doesn't matter. There are 2 doors left. 1 has a goat and 1 has a prize: you have a 50/50 chance and switching is irrelevant. If that was your answer, you were... WRONG!

The odds say that by switching doors: your odds of getting the prize double!

The most brief explanation possible is that there are three possible outcomes when you switch and 2/3 cause you to win:
* You pick the prize right away - switching makes you LOSE.
* You pick goat 1 right away - switching makes you WIN.
* You pick goat 2 right away - switching makes you WIN.

If you don't switch, there are three outcomes. Only 1/3 make you win:
* You pick the prize right away - staying makes you WIN.
* You pick goat 1 right away - switching makes you LOSE.
* You pick goat 2 right away - switching makes you LOSE.

If I tried to explain it further I would basically be copy/pasting from here, so just check there for the details and reasoning. It takes a while to get your brain around it, even after thinking about it for a while. but that site explains it in several ways, so eventually it'll have you convinced! ... and even if you read all their logic and still don't agree: they have results from a computer simulation that demonstrates it also!

For the poker players

Up until now I've spared you posts about playing cards, but it's something I do often so it deserves it's time in the spotlight here. Especially since I have a question to ask you (or at least to ask those of you who play).

Question 1: If you finish in 4th you get nothing. If you finish in 3rd or better - you get... well... something.

Do you call here or raise?

Seat 1: Kayamucho (3535)
Seat 4: jjAKQJ10 (650)
Seat 7: jfh_pkr (2185)
Seat 9: thndrshark (1630)
jfh_pkr posts small blind (150)
thndrshark posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to jfh_pkr [ Th, Ts ]
Kayamucho folds.
jjAKQJ10 raises (650) to 650
jjAKQJ10 is all-In.

Question 2: If you finish in 4th you get nothing. If you finish in 3rd or better - you get... well... something.

The two big stacks have been raising every hand (as they should) and the two small stacks have been folding for the last 10 minutes, trying to outlast each other.

NutterGBH isn't in a blind this hand (and hasn't yet acted), but next hand he will be in for 150.

Do you fold, call, or raise?

Seat 3: ReneJak (3061)
Seat 4: fireball166 (3898)
Seat 5: jfh_pkr (837)
Seat 10: NutterGBH (204)
ReneJak posts small blind (75)
fireball166 posts big blind (150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to jfh_pkr [ Qd, As ]

Back to Wisconsin

It's been great here in Miami. In the 80s everyday - didn't rain a whole lot and the conference was great!

If you're interested in the nerdy details, I have some and there are many more here.

I'm ready to be coming back to WI though... sounds like there's plenty of new snow waiting for me. Monnie and I are going to have to get back out to Tyrol!

Welcome to Miami

It may be drizzly, but hey: it's 75 and the room has an ocean view. I'll take it!



Although I didn't hear about it until I got to the hotel and turned on the TV, this happened sometime after my flight landed - and before I had left the airport. Crazy.

Sportscenter

Maurice Williams hit a HUGE 3 as tie expired to give the Bucks a big win over the Wizards. ... and that was only 3 of the 17 he scored in the last 7 minutes!

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Here are the preseason records this year for the NFL's AFC-South... anything jump out at you?

Team	W	L
Jacksonville	2	2
Houston	1	3
Tennessee	1	3
Indianapolis	0	5

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Danny Heatley's streak of consecutive games with a point was broken at an unbelievable 22, but he got back on the horse tonight scoring twice against the Kings. We had season tickets in the student section when Heatley was still at UW and he was unreal, but somehow he seems to be even better as a pro. and he's still got that winning "hockey player" smile: